UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic continues on the prelims with a fight in the welterweight division between Bassil Hafez and Oban Elliott. Hafez was able to get back on track after suffering defeat in his UFC debut with a unanimous decision victory his last time out meanwhile, Elliott is currently on a seven-fight winning streak as he is coming off a win in his UFC debut back at UFC 304. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Hafez-Elliott prediction and pick.

Bassil Hafez (9-4-1) was on the wrong end of a controversial split-decision loss against Jack Della Maddalena in his UFC debut. However, Hafez was able to get back on track when he went to war with Mickey Gall in his last fight at UFC 302. Now, “The Habibi” will look to extend his UFC record to 2-1 when he steps inside the Octagon to face off against Oban Elliott.

Oban Elliott (11-2) secured his UFC contract after a hard-fought decision victory on the Contender Series last season. He then extended his winning streak to seven in a row when he dominated Preston Parsons at UFC 304. Now, “The Welsh Gangster” gets to keep the good times rolling and extend his winning streak to eight wins in a row when he takes on Bassil Hafez this weekend at UFC 309.

Here are the UFC 309 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 309 Odds: Bassil Hafez-Oban Elliott Odds

Bassil Hafez: +230

Oban Elliott: -285

Over 2.5 rounds: -270

Under 2.5 rounds: +200

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Why Bassil Hafez Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Josh Fremd -SUB R2
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 3 (1 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Bassil Hafez is searching for a big victory against Oban Elliott at UFC 309, leveraging his resilience and grappling prowess. Hafez’s recent victory over Mickey Gall showcased his ability to absorb damage while executing a strategic game plan, landing 101 significant strikes compared to Gall’s 93. This fight demonstrated Hafez’s capacity to maintain pressure and control the pace, which will be crucial against Elliott, who tends to rely on decision victories. With a takedown average of 3.00 per 15 minutes, Hafez can exploit Elliott’s weaknesses on the ground, where he has shown vulnerability in previous bouts.

Moreover, Hafez’s emotional drive stemming from his mother’s legacy adds an extra layer of motivation. His commitment to the Baraa Hafez Breast Cancer Foundation fuels his determination to succeed not just for himself but also for a greater cause. This personal mission can translate into an unyielding fighting spirit inside the octagon. With his experience and tenacity, Hafez is well-equipped to emerge victorious this weekend at Madison Square Garden.

Why Oban Elliott Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Shara Magomedov – KO/TKO R3
• Last 5: 3-1-0, 1 NC
• Finishes: 8 (3 KO/TKO/5 SUB)

Oban Elliott is set to defeat Bassil Hafez at UFC 309, utilizing his superior striking accuracy and recent momentum. With a record of 11-2, Elliott is currently on a seven-fight win streak, showcasing his ability to consistently perform at a high level. His striking accuracy stands at 47%, significantly higher than Hafez’s 39%, indicating that Elliott can effectively land significant strikes while minimizing damage. Additionally, Elliott’s defensive skills are impressive; he allows only 2.24 significant strikes per minute, demonstrating his ability to evade attacks and control the pace of the fight.

Elliott’s experience in high-pressure situations will play a crucial role in this matchup. Having successfully transitioned from Dana White’s Contender Series to the UFC, he has proven himself against tough competition. His grappling prowess, which was on full display in his most recent victory against Preston Parsons will help dictate where this fight takes place, whether on the feet or on the ground. Given these factors, Elliott is well-equipped to secure a victory over Hafez this weekend at Madison Square Garden.

Final Bassil Hafez-Oban Elliott Prediction & Pick

We can certainly expect this fight to be an absolute barnburner between these two welterweights. Hafez as shown in his fight against Mickey Gall is willing to throw down with anyone and standing across from him is a willing partner in Oban Elliott who loves himself a brawl. This fight has the makings of a potential fight of the night candidate. However, while both fighters are skilled and well-rounded it just seems to be that Elliott is the more complete fighter in this matchup. Ultimately, Hafez while has the striking to be competitive on the feet, he will want to take this fight to the mat and what we saw from Elliott in his fight against Parsons is that his takedown defense has grown immensely which will be key for Elliott to keep this fight on the feet where he has the distinct advantage will outstrike Hafez for the majority of this fight to win a lopsided decision and extend his winning streak to eight in a row.

Final Bassil Hafez-Oban Elliott Prediction & Pick: Oban Elliott (-285), Over 2.5 Rounds (-270)