UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic continues on the prelims with a fight in the bantamweight division between Jonathan Martinez and Marcus McGhee. Martinez is coming off the toughest loss of his career against Jose Aldo back at UFC 301 meanwhile, McGhee has been surging winning five in a row and all three of his fights inside the Octagon. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Martinez-McGhee prediction and pick.

Jonathan Martinez (19-5) finally got the big fight he has been wanted after winning six in a row but ultimately lost that fight against Jose Aldo where he was just outgunned. Now, Martinez will look to put that fight in the rearview when he takes on surging prospect Marcus McGhee this weekend at UFC 309.

Marcus McGhee (10-1) has made his presence known through his first three fights in his UFC career. He has finished all three of his opponents and has yet to even see a third round as he finished Gaston Bolanos, JP Buys, and Journey Newson all before the third round. Now, McGhee gets his toughest test to date when he takes on Jonathan Martinez this weekend at Madison Square Garden.

Here are the UFC 309 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 309 Odds: Jonathan Martinez-Marcus McGhee Odds

Jonathan Martinez: +120

Marcus McGhee: -142

Over 2.5 rounds: -154

Under 2.5 rounds:  +120

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Why Jonathan Martinez Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Jose Aldo – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 11 (9 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Jonathan Martinez is primed to secure a victory over Marcus McGhee at UFC 309. With a professional record of 19-5, Martinez has faced tougher competition, including a recent bout against José Aldo, which provided him invaluable lessons despite the loss. His striking accuracy stands at 49%, and he lands an average of 4.54 significant strikes per minute, showcasing his ability to maintain offensive pressure. Martinez’s experience in high-stakes fights will play a crucial role in helping him manage the intensity of this matchup against the up-and-coming McGhee.

Martinez’s training camp has undergone a positive transformation since moving back to Texas, where he has been honing his skills at Ohana Academy and his own MTZ Fight Club. This change has reinvigorated his approach, allowing him to refine his game plan and adapt to different fighting styles. With a solid grappling defense and the ability to absorb only 3.87 significant strikes per minute, Martinez is well-equipped to counter McGhee’s aggressive style. This combination of experience and strategic preparation positions Jonathan Martinez as the favorite to emerge victorious this weekend at Madison Square Garden.

Why Marcus McGhee Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Gaston Bolanos – KO/TKO R2
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 9 (8 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Marcus McGhee is set to defeat Jonathan Martinez at UFC 309. With a professional record of 10-1, McGhee has quickly made a name for himself in the UFC, boasting an impressive 3-0 start with all finishes. His ability to maintain pressure and capitalize on openings has proven effective, as he averages 5.43 significant strikes landed per minute with a striking accuracy of 51%. This offensive output will be crucial against Martinez, who may struggle to keep pace with McGhee’s high-volume striking.

Additionally, McGhee’s grappling defense is noteworthy; he successfully defends 85% of takedowns against him, which could neutralize any attempts by Martinez to take the fight to the ground. The experience McGhee gained from his previous bouts has instilled confidence in his approach, allowing him to adapt mid-fight and exploit his opponent’s weaknesses. With his combination of speed, power, and adaptability, Marcus McGhee is well-equipped to secure a victory over Jonathan Martinez this weekend at Madison Square Garden.

Final Jonathan Martinez-Marcus McGhee Prediction & Pick

This fight is going to get things started before we head to the main card as these two bantamweights go to battle this weekend at UFC 309. Both Martinez and McGhee can steal the show and that is why the UFC has pitted them as the featured bout on the UFC 309 prelims. This fight should be a back-and-forth battle that is going to be won or lost with the littlest of margins. McGhee has certainly exceeded all expectations in his UFC career but this could be the fight where he has finally met his match.

Ultimately, while McGhee is very well-rounded and able to mix it up on the feet and on the mat Martinez can stay at range utilizing his kicks, movement, and speed to pick McGhee apart from the outside for the latter portion of this fight outstriking McGhee to a unanimous decision victory to get back on track this weekend at MSG.

Final Jonathan Martinez-Marcus McGhee Prediction & Pick: Jonathan Martinez (+120), Over 2.5 Rounds (-154)