A newly motivated Saudi Arabia stand in front of the resurgent Socceroos in a crucial World Cup qualifier in Melbourne on Thursday, with the group’s second automatic qualification spot for the 2026 tournament dangling tantalisingly for the winner.

Although he only took charge in September, Australia’s coach Tony Popovic believes his players are well placed to win a clash that represents the halfway mark of this qualification phase, between opponents locked together in the standings on five points.

“We feel it’s in our hands here at our home stadium and our crowd, the players look calm and confident, and I want to see that in their performance,” Popovic said.

Saudi Arabia present a familiar opponent, who had the better of the Socceroos in qualifying for the previous World Cup under French coach Hervé Renard. Much has changed since then, and Renard left to coach France in the Women’s World Cup last year. The Matildas beat Renard’s side in the quarter-final shootout in Brisbane, and Renard – having returned to coach Saudi Arabia – joked on Wednesday it was now “one-one” between him and Australia.

The 56-year-old only took charge last month after Roberto Mancini’s 14-month spell ended by mutual agreement. “The feeling was like I never left this team, I know three quarters of these players, we had a fantastic World Cup qualifiers in 2022 and a really good World Cup as well,” Renard said. “We still have very good memories together, but this is the past, we now have to look forward.”

The teams drew 0-0 at Parramatta almost three years ago, and the visitors have never won on Australian soil. Socceroos midfielder Jackson Irvine said the players know their opponents well – even if winger Salem al-Dawsari will be missing through injury – although the presence of Renard is likely to provide extra motivation.

“I’m sure they’ll have a bit of a bounce, as teams do, and we know their qualities,” Irvine said. “We’ve come up against them a number of times over the last few years, and we’re aware of those threats.”

Renard was named as a contender to replace Graham Arnold as Socceroos coach before Popovic took the job, but he declined to say on Wednesday whether he had spoken with Football Australia during their recruitment process.

With cards close to his chest, the Saudi coach said Thursday was a “very important game” for his team but that Bahrain and Indonesia, who are also part of the group and placed immediately below his team, shouldn’t be written off.

“I think it will be a big fight between three or four teams for the second position, so still a long way [to go],” he said. “We also have, I hope, the opportunity for the last game of this group to receive [host] Australia.”

Popovic has kept faith with the bulk of the side that beat China and drew with Japan in the previous window, but mystery hangs over critical positions.

In goal, captain Mat Ryan appeared to be demoted to back-up keeper behind Joe Gauci last month, and neither is first-choice at club level. When asked about Ryan – who is yet to play since moving to Roma in the off-season – Popovic said cryptically “you may see him tomorrow”.

“I’m sure he’ll be available for tomorrow and I’m sure he’ll get more numbers under his belt in terms of the Socceroos performances,” Popovic added.

In midfield, Luke Brattan and Keanu Baccus have been dropped, and Popovic has brought in Sydney FC’s 32-year-old Anthony Caceres and NAC Breda’s Max Balard – who moved from Central Coast in the off-season – and could be deployed alongside Jackson Irvine in the centre of the park.

“We feel [Balard] just keeps improving and has become more consistent with his game over there, and gaining confidence from playing regularly against big opponents,” Popovic said. “And Caceres gets a reward for being a very consistent player, a very good player for Sydney for a long time, but in particular this year I feel he’s really stepped up.”

Up front, Kusini Yengi has recovered from injury, and Popovic has a different mix of attackers to choose from, with Martin Boyle and Brandon Borrello now available at the expense of the omitted Nestory Irankunda and the suspended Craig Goodwin.

“We’re at the early stages of building a foundation of how we want to play, we started that in October, we really need to cement that foundation in this camp and hopefully add a few more layers to our game, with and without the ball,” Popovic said.

“Our expectation is to win, regardless of whether it’s early in our tenure together as a group or not.”