• Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 100.5pts | Returned 93.66pts | P/L -6.84pts | ROI -14.7%

Football betting tips: EFL

Saturday

1.5pts Bristol City to beat Burnley (12:30) at 2/1 (William Hill)

1pt Bristol City to win to nil at 18/5 (Bet Victor)

1pt Fraser Horsfall to score anytime in Burton vs Stockport (15:00) at 18/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Fraser Horsfall to score 2+ goals in at 250/1 (Sky Bet)

Monday

1pt Shilow Tracey to score anytime in Port Vale vs Crewe (20:00) at 5/1 (bet365)

1pt Shilow Tracey to score 2+ goals at 50/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Times like this I curse my parents for naming me Jimmy The Punt. Maybe if they called me Jimmy The Sensible Value Nerd the column wouldn’t be two editions without a winner.

Maybe I’d have taken a Northampton double chance at Blackpool, or Cheltenham on the handicap. Oh well, that’s not my style. The pursuit of big-priced losers, however, that’s what gets me going. And that is what I have this weekend.

Bristol City vs Burnley

BRISTOL CITY are good at getting results against possession-based sides. In six games with teams in the top seven for average possession in the Sky Bet Championship, the Robins are unbeaten (W2 D4) conceding just four goals, and scoring seven.

The recent wins at Middlesbrough and Norwich, either side of a goalless draw at home with Leeds, were particularly impressive.

Liam Manning’s men were outsiders in all three games but limited the opposition to very little. Norwich only mustered an xG of 0.28, Leeds 1.38 (and only one shot over 0.35 xG) and although Middlesbrough managed 1.60 xG their best effort had a value of 0.30.

Burnley are the only side in the top seven for average possession that Bristol City are yet to face.

So often the case with Scott Parker’s sides, they have a lot of the ball (57%) but do little with it. The Clarets only scored two goals in five games before the break and one was a penalty.

BRISTOL CITY TO WIN and TO WIN TO NIL are worth a poke in the early kick-off.

Burton vs Stockport

Stockport’s trip to Burton provides us with a sumptuous set of circumstances.

A bad side at defending set pieces meets a good side at attacking them, whose lethal threat is just coming to the boil and is a massive price to score.

In 14 league games, Burton have conceded eight from dead-ball situations and four different centre-backs have found the net against them.

Stockport have scored eight times from set-plays and FRASER HORSFALL is our man to back.

The centre-back has averaged over a shot per 90 this season, scored once and had eight attempts across his last two games. The goal took his domestic tally to 17 (0.09 goals per 90) and based on that average he could be as short as 10/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME this weekend but is 18s.

Paudie O’Connor netted a brace for Lincoln against the Brewers on opening day which is all the convincing I need that backing Horsfall TO SCORE 2+ GOALS is also worth a go.

Port Vale vs Crewe

The top two square-off in Sky Bet League Two on Monday.

Port Vale, one of the ante-post favourites for the title, are five points clear. Crewe continue to defy expectations.

Winless after three games, Lee Bell’s side have only lost one of the last 12 taking 24 points from the next 36 on offer.

The Railwaymen’s versatility is a big strength, with Bell able to set up to steamroll low blocks or pick the big boys off on the counter; expect the latter here.

Crewe have taken points from Notts County, Walsall, Doncaster and Gillingham all within the last seven games and SHILOW TRACEY‘s pace upfront has been a major factor.

He scored twice against Gillingham, hit the double again against Tranmere and scored the opener against Notts County in Crewe’s last game.

At 5/1, he is a whopping price TO SCORE ANYTIME and to SCORE 2+ GOALS at Vale Park.

Already advised

1pt Morgan Whittaker to score anytime in Plymouth vs Watford (20:00) at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Morgan Whittaker to score and be carded at 21/1 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor)

Plymouth vs Watford

Watford attack more down their left which naturally means they defend less down that side, and why they concede more shots from the right (22%) compared to the left (14%).

Plymouth don’t really favour either side but in MORGAN WHITTAKER they certainly have a man who can punish this weakness as right wingers Myles Peart-Harris did for Swansea and Pol Valentin did for Sheffield Wednesday before the break.

All due respect, Whittaker is a cut above that pair.

Last year he scored 19 times (0.43 goals per 90) and despite interest from elsewhere opted to stay with the Pilgrims in the summer. Although he hasn’t reached the same heights yet, he still has three goals to his name this term and the 11/4 about him TO SCORE ANYTIME seems large; some firms have the bet at 9/5.

Whittaker has also picked up three cards, staggering considering he only had 10 to his name going into the campaign. Maybe it’s the Wayne Rooney effect.

One card was for a foul, one for time wasting (in the fourth minute) and the other was after a last-gasp winner against Blackburn.

Combining a goal with Whittaker TO BE SHOWN A CARD provides some interest at 21/1, especially with the presence of the TV cameras.

The ideal scenario is Whittaker scores late and is carded for an overzealous celebration. It is also the reason I’ll be re-backing the goal-card combination late in the game, should the circumstances suit. The odds will be astronomical with Sky Bet, Betfair and Paddy Power so keep your eyes peeled.

Odds correct at 1200 GMT (21/11/24)

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