In the last week of November, when snowfall was observed in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, neighbouring Uttarakhand too, hoped for a similar weather.

However as of November 26, the hills of Uttarakhand are still waiting for snow and rain. 

“More than 80 per cent of agriculture in Uttarakhand’s hills is rain-fed. Due to the lack of rain, crops such as wheat, barley, and lentils, which were supposed to be sown by the rain-fed farmers, have been completely destroyed. The farmers couldn’t sow, and the fields remained dry and barren. The lack of rainfall, or untimely rain, has a direct impact on farmers’ livelihoods,” Vijay Jadhari, a farmer from Tehri told Down To Earth (DTE). 

He recalled, “Earlier, this never used to happen. We always used to get rain for sowing wheat seeds. Horticulture too will face a huge crisis. It is the small farmers who are most affected by the weather. Most of the farmers in our hills are small and marginal farmers and nobody is paying attention to their plight”.

Cutlivators worst affected

In Uttarakhand, which is more than 86 per cent mountainous, most irrigation-based farming is limited to the plains. Only 14 per cent of the land in the mountainous region is irrigated.

The farmers in the state have received very little rainfall after September. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), between October 1 and November 24, Uttarakhand experienced nearly 90 per cent less rainfall than usual. Apart from Pithoragarh and Bageshwar, the remaining 11 districts have remained completely dry.

Taking stock of the neighbouring Himalayan states, Himachal Pradesh in the same time span,  received 98 per cent less rainfall than normal while Jammu & Kashmir registered a 68 per cent deficit. In a statement, the IMD mentioned that October in Himachal Pradesh was the third driest in the last 123 years, with 97 per cent less rainfall.

Typically, the least rainfall in a year occurs between October and December following the departure of the monsoon and generally November is considered to be the driest month of the year.

Bikram Singh, Director of the Dehradun Meteorological Centre (IMD-Dehradun), explained, “The monsoon lasts until September and when it retreats, rainfall continues in October due to the moisture in the air. Western disturbances start affecting the state from mid-December, bringing rain and snow towards the end of December. Winter rains occur in January, February, and March. Pre-monsoon rains begin in April and last until the end of May. From June, the monsoon winds bring clouds with them.”

Normally, between October and December, Uttarakhand receives an average of 55 millimetres of rain: 31 mm in October, 6.4 mm in November, and 17.6 mm in December. During the monsoon, the average rainfall is 1,162 mm, 185 mm in the pre-monsoon, and 101 mm in winter.

Singh said that the reduced rainfall after the monsoon leads to greater fluctuations in rainfall patterns. 

“The long-term average of 6.4 mm rainfall in November reflects that western disturbances are typically not very active during this month. While there may be some effect in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal, there is no impact on Uttarakhand,” he added.

Impact of climate change on western disturbances

Western disturbances are weather systems that originate over the Mediterranean Sea and surrounding regions. As these systems travel eastward, they interact with the Hindu Kush mountain ranges and then move towards northern India and the Himalayan regions. These disturbances bring rain and snow, which are vital for farmers’ crop cycles, replenishing water sources, and adding snow to glaciers.

-Recently, changes in the western disturbances have been observed and these are being linked to the rise in global temperatures and climate change.

According to a study published in the journal Weather and Climate Dynamics, western disturbances have increased during the summer months, whereas this was rare in the past. Over the last 20 years, the number of western disturbances in June has doubled compared to the previous 50 years.

Similar to last year, the impact of western disturbances was more visible in northern India during the pre-monsoon summer months, while the post-monsoon rains have been less. This means that the long wait for farmers preparing fields for wheat sowing is not over yet.

Farmer Vijay Jadhari recalled that last year, rainfall remained very low until December and the heat in the hills was at its peak. 

“If the situation is the same this year, the upcoming summer will also be intense. This will also affect irrigated farming, as the water levels in rivers will decrease. The drinking water supply in the hills is also directly dependent on rainfall,” he told DTE.