Happy Thanksgiving! Yes, there will be turkey and stuffing, but we also get three NFL games Thursday to keep us occupied.

The red-hot Detroit Lions host the NFC North rival Chicago Bears to start the day, followed by the New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys and wrapping up with a night game at chilly Lambeau Field between the Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins.

If you happen to be betting on the games, Ben Solak and Seth Walder are here to offer their analysis and picks for the day.

All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.

Jump to:
Bears-Lions | Giants-Cowboys | Dolphins-Packers

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Why aren’t the Giants targeting Malik Nabers more?

Field Yates, Stephania Bell, and Daniel Dopp criticize the lack of targets for Malik Nabers in the Giants offense.

Game total OVER 48.5 (-110)

Solak: It has been an intense two weeks for the Bears. They played a nailbiter against the Packers in Chicago — a game they could have and should have won, if not for a blocked field goal attempt as time expired — then lost another last-second game to another divisional rival in overtime to the Minnesota Vikings last week. Now, following an overtime game, they have to travel on a short week to Detroit and play their third divisional rival in as many games.

I think it’s reasonable to expect a deflated Bears team, given all of the heartbreaking losses, the coaching drama and the short week following an extended game. But I also think it’s reasonable to expect a prideful and spirited Bears team, one that has nearly beaten two superior divisional opponents and now gets the one-loss Lions with an opportunity to play spoiler on Thanksgiving. It’s a tough situation to read, and I’ll be watching the first quarter closely to see if there are good live angles on this game off of the Bears’ pluckiness.

If the Bears don’t have a lot of fight in them, I could see the Lions’ offense absolutely rolling them with points. And if the Bears do have some fight left, well, I could see the Lions’ offense absolutely rolling them with points. Both running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown are expected to be available in this game, and the once-vaunted Bears defense has really started to flounder in recent weeks. In the last two weeks, they’ve given up 7.0 and 8.5 yards per play, their two worst performances of the season. Chicago is particularly susceptible to the explosive play, ranking 31st in the NFL in explosive play rate surrendered. That’s exactly how the Lions make their hay on offense. Detroit is second in explosive pass rate and seventh in explosive run rate, and we know Detroit will pour extra points on in the second half to pad existing leads.

On the other side of the ball, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has been sustaining a banged-up defense. In the absence of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions have cranked up the blitz rate, blitzing on 41.6% of opposing dropbacks (a preposterously high number) and still getting pressure on 36.4% of dropbacks. The addition of Za’Darius Smith and quiet excellence of Alim McNeill have been saving graces here, but more injuries are beginning to collect. Middle linebacker Alex Anzalone is out with a broken forearm and top cornerback Carlton Davis III will either miss or be limited in this game with a knee injury. The Lions’ defensive depth was already questionable, and now it’s really getting tested.

I think some regression to the mean is inevitable for the Lions defense. The film of the game against the Indianapolis Colts looks a lot shakier than the six Indianapolis points would indicate. I like a high-scoring game that will either feature an impassioned Bears team forcing four competitive quarters, or a languishing Bears team surrendering an enormous day for the Lions’ offense.

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Why Tyler Fulghum likes the under in Dolphins-Packers

Tyler Fulghum explains why he likes the under in the Dolphins’ matchup vs. the Packers on Thanksgiving.

WR Rome Odunze to score 1+ touchdowns (+325)

Walder: This is strictly a situation where we’re playing the number. There isn’t really anything that stands out about Odunze’s profile that makes him an exceptional touchdown threat in this game. His 26% team receiving yards share is solid (26th-best among wide receivers), but virtually every other number the model looks at, from his completed air yards per route to average receiving yards prop line to his separation, are all more or less middling. But +325 is just a bit too high, and that’s why we’re buying. The model makes his fair price +240.

WR Jameson Williams longest reception OVER 23.5 yards (-120)

Walder: Do I normally only include bets based on my model’s outputs? Yes, I do.

But what is Thanksgiving about if not placing blind faith in your friends’ football convictions? Even though I’m in charge of props for today’s column, Solak informed me that Williams’ longest reception over prop was “screaming my name,” and who am I to deny him in this holiday season?

Solak’s justification: the Bears allow a 14% explosive pass rate, second-worst of all teams, and Williams’ 41% rate of receptions that go for 20+ receiving yards ranks second among all wide receivers. I’ll add some of my own: Williams ranks 10th in air yards per target and first in YAC per reception this year. He runs the fourth-highest rate of deep crossers — he’s one of, if not the most efficient routes in the NFL — and Amon-Ra St. Brown is at least banged up with a knee injury that kept him out of Monday’s walkthrough and kept him limited in Tuesday’s practice.

Game total UNDER 37.5 (-120)

Solak: This is a trickier game to handicap at this time, as Giants QB Tommy DeVito is officially listed as questionable with a right forearm injury. I would make this line closer to Giants +2.5/38.5 points with Drew Lock at the helm, in that Lock has more potential for big completions and big turnovers that would create points that the ever-scrambling, rarely good DeVito simply will not generate.

I am highly suspicious of a total defensive recovery in Dallas, as the unit still has clear weaknesses in their linebacker and defensive tackle rooms. But the return of Micah Parsons to the starting lineup has clearly impacted the Cowboys’ pass rush (because, duh, he’s very good at it) and their run defense (because teams focus their running schemes around Parsons, which makes everyone else’s job easier). Cornerback DaRon Bland also finally returned from his long stint on injured reserve this past week against the Washington Commanders, and while running mate Trevon Diggs might still miss this game with a groin injury, Bland is an impactful player who raises the floor for the Dallas defense.

Both Cooper Rush (knee) and CeeDee Lamb (back/foot) are expected to go for the Cowboys, having logged limited practices on Tuesday. Lamb was integral to the Cowboys’ first outing against the Giants with eight targets, seven catches, 98 yards and a score. But with Jake Ferguson still in the concussion protocol and Brandin Cooks on injured reserve, the Cowboys are so perilously thin at pass-catcher that I’d imagine the Giants dedicate additional attention Lamb’s way and force someone else to beat them. The Cowboys’ offensive line, which might be missing Zack Martin (ankle/shoulder), is wholly outmatched by the Giants’ defensive line.

Everything about this game screams under, and the total is low as such. It is worth remarking that 37 is a key number in NFL totals, and so long as we are getting that number, I’m happy buying it. But I would not go lower. In the event that Lock is confirmed the starter before kickoff, I would likely pass on the total altogether.

WR Malik Nabers 90+ receiving yards (+210)

Walder: Even in last week’s game when Nabers wasn’t targeted until the second half — and he made sure everyone knew — the rookie wide receiver still ended up with 64 receiving yards. He also, still, has a 99 open score — the highest possible — meaning he gets open relative to expectation at an extremely high clip. Whether the Giants can take advantage of that certainly remains a question, but Nabers’ talent level should put 90+ yards in range no matter who is playing quarterback. And that’s another thing: turning to Drew Lock works in Nabers’ favor, since he is (in my view) better than Tommy DeVito. I make the fair price here +135.

DT Osa Odighizuwa UNDER 0.5 sacks (-135)

Walder: One group that was surely disappointed to hear that DeVito was a long shot to play Thursday, per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, were the Cowboys’ pass rushers. While DeVito’s 15% career sack rate borders on the absurd (and is more than double the league average), sack avoidance is a strength for Lock, who has a career 5% sack rate.

Though Odighizuwa has been playing more recently, his 9% pass rush win rate is just about average, and he has only 2.0 sacks on the season. I make the price -230, so this is a big value at -135.

I will make a side note (not an official bet): if DeVito does make a surprise start, then the model is all over Micah Parsons over 0.5 sacks at the -175 price he had prior to the news that Lock would likely start.

Also: Giants NT Dexter Lawrence II under 0.5 sacks (-170)

Dolphins +3.5

Solak: The 8-3 Packers have been a hard team to handicap and remain so as they approach a critical night game against the Dolphins. The Packers’ past few games: a drubbing of the Brandon Allen-led San Francisco 49ers, an almost-loss to the reeling Bears, a bad-weather loss to the Lions in their home stadium, another near-loss to the floundering Jacksonville Jaguars and a late-game win over a Houston Texans team that is looking less quality by the week. It’s hard to figure out exactly how good this team is, but they feel worse than their record would indicate. When I look at advanced metrics, I remain extremely suspicious of this defense, which is 23rd in success rate overall and 28th in success rate against dropbacks (but third in EPA, given their extremely high takeaway rate).

Now the Packers catch a red-hot Dolphins team that has clawed their way back into the playoff race with three consecutive wins leading up to this game. Again, I find myself wondering just how good three wins against the Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots really are, but since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury, there is no doubt that this offense is back to being a strong unit. Since Week 8, they are second in success rate, fourth in EPA per play and second in points per drive.

While I expect a lot of urgency from a revitalized Dolphins team, I am worried about how the weather might affect them. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected, with the off chance for some snow. Of course, most cold-weather stats are just small sample stats, but it is worth remarking that Tua is 0-4 in the four games he has played with a kickoff temperature below 40 degrees. He didn’t have a positive completion percentage over expectation in any of the four games, as the Tua-Mike McDaniel offense asks receivers to take a lot of hits over the middle of the field, and that’s a tough way to play when every hit rattles your bones in the cold. The good news? The new-spangled Dolphins’ offense is relying less on those throws, however, and I could see this underneath passing game translating much better to cold weather than the previous iterations have.

Also of note is McDaniel’s record against winning teams. In 13 regular-season games against eventual playoff teams, McDaniel’s Dolphins are 3-10 outright and 4-9 against the spread, with two of those wins and covers coming in the first three weeks of the 2022 season, when McDaniel was just taking the league by storm with his spin on the offense. This season, the Dolphins have lost to the Buffalo Bills twice, along with the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, the current favorites to make it out of the NFC West.

So a cover (and a win) would buck trends for the Dolphins. But again, a lot of these trends are small sample noises in disguise. I think the 3.5-point line for the Packers is a reflection of the cold weather and tough opponent, but over the past month, the Dolphins have been the better team, and I’m happy to get them with a field goal cushion in this season-defining game.

LB Quay Walker UNDER 8.5 tackles + assists (-130)

Walder: I’ve written before about how our default starting position for an every-down linebacker should be under 8.5 combined tackles. There are ways we can and do move off that position, but the model just doesn’t see it for Walker in this game.

Walker’s 14% tackle rate is just a tiny shade above average and, most critically, the Packers are 3.5-point favorites against the Dolphins. That means Miami is more likely to be behind and forced into passing situations even where Walker’s tackle rates drop. I forecast Walker for 7.5 combined tackles.