Donald Trump, speaking to reporters after casting his ballot in Florida, was asked about the possibility that neither he nor Kamala Harris may reach 270 electoral votes by the end of tonight.

“A thing like that should never happen,” the Republican presidential candidate says. Trump says he wants to “bring everybody in, we want to be very inclusive.”

Trump says he feels “very confident”, adding that it looks like Republicans “have shown up in force.” “I hear we’re doing very well,” he says.

Donald Trump has arrived to vote in Palm Beach, Florida alongside his wife, Melania.

He told reporters he is “very honored” to find out that the lines are long. “This is the best campaign we’ve run,” he said.

His opponent, Kamala Harris, cast her vote by mail ballot to California.

The FBI has warned Americans that two new fake videos bearing the agency’s name and insignia are being “misused in promoting false narratives surrounding the election”.

In a statement on Tuesday, the law enforcement agency said it is aware of a “fabricated news clip purporting to be a terrorist warning issued by the FBI” that urges Americans to “vote remotely”, citing a high terror threat at polling stations.

The second video contains a fabricated FBI press release that claims “five prisons in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona rigged inmate voting and colluded with a political party,” the FBI said.

Both videos are not authentic, the agency warned, adding that “election integrity is among our highest priorities.”

“Attempts to deceive the public with false content about FBI threat assessments and activities aim to undermine our democratic process and erode trust in the electoral system,” it added.

With recent election polling showing a dead heat – or slim victory for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris within the statistical margin of error – seven swing states are all but certain to decide the race.

As pollsters scramble to make sense of these results, amid questions about reliability given bad calls over support for Trump in 2016 and 2020, analysts are taking an even more granular approach in interpreting battleground state voters, focusing on a handful of counties in these hotly contested regions.

They are often referred to as bellwether counties. This effectively means counties that could tip the scale in determining a swing state’s outcome.

Here are the counties that analysts – ranging from seasoned election-watchers to Wall Street financiers – are focused on.

Reporting from Scottsdale, Arizona:

Political signs littered the roadside entrance to a busy polling place in Scottsdale, Arizona, and more signs went up as voters arrived in the early morning hours to form a steady line – a visual representation of how coveted these voters are for races up and down the ballot.

The Indian Bend Wash polling location saw Republicans in Trump hats and shirts talking to voters outside, while Democrats handed out a voter guide to people as they walked to the line.

Turning Point USA brought out a bright pink party bus with “Trump train” signs on it, which will be used to take voters to other Scottsdale polling places if the lines become too long today. The group also put up signs imploring voters to stay in line: “stay in line, don’t leave your country behind,” one sign said.

A man was also gathering signatures for America Pac, Elon Musk’s group that is paying circulators to sign up other people who could win a $1m prize. “Elon Musk needs our help,” the man told one voter.

We spoke to voters here who chose Donald Trump, Kamala Harris or no one. Jesse Torrez, a 67-year-old independent, voted for Harris, both because of her ideology and because he said Trump did not have any character. “I’m thinking about my grandchildren and what they’re going to need to face in the future and I just have no confidence in the Republican candidate’s leadership or capabilities to lead this country. He’s proven that to me,” Torrez said.

Jessica Mendoza, 35, voted for Trump. “I have two kids and I really just want to see a change for them and a better future,” she said “We’re also Christians so we voted with our morals as well.”

Vice-president Kamala Harris also called into The Big K Morning Show with Larry Richert on NewsRadio KDKA in Pittsburgh this morning.

Harris discussed the economy, immigration, the divide within the country, and more.

At one point, Harris said that if elected, her first order of business would be “bringing down the cost of living for folks.”

“I have a package of plans that address that” she added. “Everything from what we need to do to create, for example of first time national ban on corporate price gouging on groceries, what we can do around tax credits for young families, tax credits and support for small businesses, including what we can do around a $25,000 down payment assistance for first time homebuyers.”

When asked about her plans for election day, Harris said she will be watching the results at her alma mater, Howard University, this evening.

Before that, she will be having dinner with her family, she said, noting that many relatives are staying with her.

Harris stated that throughout the day today she will be engaging with voters and encouraging them to make sure they get out to vote.

Will the Joe Rogan endorsement make a difference?

Sam Wolfson

Joe Rogan has tended to present himself as receptive and open minded. He endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020 and for much of this election he’s been most receptive to the ideas of RFK Jr.

Now the most popular podcaster in history has decided to endorse Donald Trump. But how much of a difference will it make?

In May, pollsters for the New York Times/Siena College analysed their data to see what were the key predictors for why a voter who supported Joe Biden in 2020 might defect to the Republicans in 2024. They found that the No 1 predictor was whether the voter was born in the Middle East, a reflection of the Democrats’ position on the war in Gaza. The No 2 predictor was whether they had a favorable view of Rogan. (Similar polling has not been done since Harris became the Democratic candidate.)

Research from the Young Men Research Initiative from July also suggests that the timing of the endorsement – following a three-hour conversation with Elon Musk – could matter. 36% of young men they polled said they “liked and generally trusted the views of” Rogan. Musk ranked even higher among the group, 45% said they liked and trusted him.

Musk appeared on Rogan’s podcast yesterday to promote conspiracy theories about the Democratic party in a bid to convince Rogan to vote for Trump. He repeated a version of the “great replacement” theory that if Democrats win the election Harris will “legalize enough illegals” so that there will “never be another real election in the US again”. He said “illegal migrants are literally being flown in to the swing states”.

It’s not clear how influential such a late endorsement will be, but there is probably a group of men who don’t engage with traditional news sources for whom Musk’s falsehoods – and Trump’s appearance on the podcast last week – may be key to their decision.